Quantum computing has been in the news recently with the US Department of Commerce placing 27 entities which are developing quantum computing technologies – among other things – on its entity list.

While it’s too soon to tell whether this move will hurt quantum computing as a whole, given that the world marches on regardless of what the US does, we doubt it will.

We say this because, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts, the quantum computing market will grow from $412 million in 2020 to $8.6 billion in 2027. That represents a six-year compound annual growth rate of 50.9 percent over the period.

This growth, says the IDC, is borne from what it dubs major breakthroughs in the technology and quantum computing as a service infrastructure and platforms maturing. Over the next few years IDC sees performance intensive computing workloads suitable for the technology driving market growth.

“For many critical problems, classical computing will run out of steam in the next decade and we will see quantum computing take over as the next generation of performance-intensive computing,” says Peter Rutten, global research lead for performance intensive computing at IDC.

This year however, has been pivotal to the growth of the market says the IDC.

“Strategic approaches implemented to reach quantum advantage became more defined as vendors published quantum computing roadmaps emphasizing methods for improving qubit scaling and error correction, sought new funding opportunities by going public or partnering with government, educational, or private entities, or merged in anticipation of offering a more full-stack approach,” explains the IDC.

Something else that is of interest is a paper that was published this week in which researchers at Stanford University propose using photons for quantum computing. This could allow these computers to operate at room temperature but the solution does still have teething problems.

It’s important then that stakeholders and players in the quantum computing sector begin experimenting and using roadmaps to guide the journey.

The progression of quantum computing is a drumbeat says the IDC and if we want to solve some of our most complex problems investment is the first step, just don’t expect stratospheric returns immediately.

[Image – CC BY 2.0 Steve Jurvetson]