• The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has released its initial prediction of the elections 2024 results.
• The prediction shows that the ANC will lose its majority in parliament, while the DA and newcomer MK will move into the second and third spots, respectively.
• According to the CSIR, the prediction model has a two percent margin for error.

Election day in South Africa has come and gone and now it is down to the Electoral Commission (IEC) to tally the votes. But while we wait for the IEC to give the final election results by Sunday, governmental research organisation the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research says it now has a good picture of what the final results could be.

The CSIR used its algorithm-based prediction model, which it uses every election, to show a picture of the results ahead of time. According to the council, the model has a margin for error of about two percent and can give “a high degree of accuracy at a national level” with only five percent of the vote tallied.

Now with nearly 13 percent of the vote tallied, the CSIR has published their initial prediction, and it shows that the ANC will indeed lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since it gained power in 1994.

According to the prediction, the ANC will lead with 42 percent of the vote, followed by the DA at 22 percent which will remain the official opposition if the prediction holds true.

Now the interesting part, as the CSIR predicts that Jacob Zuma’s Mkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party will move into the third spot in parliament with over 13 percent of the vote, ousting the EFF as the third most powerful party in the country.

Meanwhile, the EFF is predicted to leave with under nine percent of the vote.

How accurate is the CSIR prediction of the final election results

The CSIR says that its prediction model is world-class, and is tested and fine-tuned during elections of other nations.

In 2016, the CSIR used its model to correctly predict that Donald Trump would win the US elections that year and it accurately found the results of 44 states of 50 states, one federal state of Washington DC and major islands and territories.

CSIR uses the model to also predict results of smaller elections in South Africa, including in the 2000, 2006, 2011, 2016 municipal elections. In 2016’s municipal elections, CSIR found a final prediction of the results that was just one percent point away from the real final result.

What does the CSIR prediction mean for South Africa

If the prediction holds true and the ANC loses the majority it will have to form a coalition government with other parties. Cyril Ramaphosa will, however, remain president of South Africa in this scenario.

Analysts, like those writing for Bloomberg, believe that Ramaphosa will have to choose whether to form a coalition with the other top parties – DA, MK, or EFF.

The choice will have implications for the next five years in South Africa, in terms of service delivery and the economic situation. The markets will react positively if the ANC aligns itself with the DA, which is seen as more capitalist (and open to a free market) than the EFF or the MK.

However, the DA has publically said that it refuses to work with the ANC, and the MK is in actuality a splinter faction of the ANC anyway. Whatever the outcome, with the ANC potentially losing majority, the watershed moment for South Africa that many expected after these elections is near.

There is only one place that South Africans should be looking for accurate and real-time election results information online, and that is on the official IEC website, found here.