- Earlier this year an asteroid was discovered that has a small chance of hitting Earth in seven years.
- 2024 YR4 is as big as 90m, but the chance that it will hit Earth is little over one percent.
- Space agencies and observers are studying the asteroid to get a better idea of its chance of impacting our planet.
There is currently an asteroid hurtling through space that has a small chance of impacting with Earth in 2032. The 22nd of December 2032 to be exact.
The asteroid in question was found late last year and it was subsequently reported to the NASA funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. The asteroid has been named 2024 YR4 and measures between 40 to 90 metres. That sounds rather small but 2024 YR4 could caused localised damage should it ever impact Earth.
On that note, the question everybody seems to be asking is whether 2024 YR4 will hit Earth. The answer to that is unclear and more observations are needed. NASA is even roping the James Webb Space Telescope into its observation plans with the space telescope set to train its eye on the object in March.
“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise,” writes NASA.
With that being said, the impact probability of 2024 YR4 with Earth is above the 1 percent impact threshold which necessitates that a formal warning be issued.
So if 2024 YR4 does hit Earth, which is unlikely given the current data, how bad would it be?
That all depends on where the asteroid makes impact but we do have some idea thanks to an event over 100 years ago. In 1908, an asteroid that spanned 60m exploded in mid-air creating an explosion measuring between 3 and 50 megatons in Eastern Siberia.
The explosion caused enough damage to fell trees in a 2 150km2 area and reports from the time suggest as many as three people died as a result of the explosion. This was more than a hundred years ago though and 2024 YR4 is slightly larger on the top end of estimates.
The Sentry Earth Impact Monitoring system reports that the asteroid represents a threat level of three on the Torino scale. That scale goes up to 10 and most asteroids we discover have a threat level of one, or no threat at all. Based on current observations, the asteroid could have an impact energy of 7.626 megatons and suggest that if an impact were to happen it would hit somewhere in Africa, India or South East Asia.
We highly recommend watching the video below to get an idea of just how dangerous small asteroids like 2024 YR4 can be and – more importantly – just how bad we are at detecting asteroids, especially in the dark.
The good news is that humanity has been working to avert just such a disaster from happening. In 2022, NASA slammed a 570kg box into the Dimorphos asteroid in a bid to change its orbital trajectory around Didymos in the Double Asteroid Redirection Test or DART.
That test appears to have been more effective than the space agency hoped and the European Space Agency launched its Hera mission in 2024 to get a better look at how effective DART was.
For now, there is no reason to be concerned about 2024 YR4 as the possibility it will make impact with Earth is miniscule. Of course, that could change and if it does, we’ll be sure to update you.
