- From January to June there were 876 hours of loadshedding.
- Between July and September, however, this figure amounted to 1 073 hours.
- The good news is that demand is falling, the bad news is so is Eskom’s energy availability factor.
As Eskom and South Africa continues to battle with persistent power cuts, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has published data showcasing just how bad things are.
Let’s begin with something we all know to be true but don’t have data to back up – this year has seen the most power cuts ever and we’re not even looking at a full year of data.
In the first half of the year loadshedding had been implemented for 876 hours, more than had been implemented for the entirety of 2020. It gets worse though as from January to September loadshedding has been implemented for 1 949 hours.
This means that between July and September, South Africa experienced 1 073 hours of loadshedding. In three months there was more loadshedding than the six months prior combined.
Perhaps most alarming is the fact that annual peak demand is dropping. In 2021 peak demand was reportedly 35GW, while this is only slightly lower in the 34.6GW, the overall trend over the last decade has seen demand dropping. If Eskom can’t keep the lights on when demand is dropping, that should be ringing alarm bells in the halls of government.
The data looking at January to September shows the average of Stage 2 loadshedding graduating to an average of Stage 4 loadshedding. What’s more is that Stage 6 has been more pervasive than it was in 2019, the only other year with this stage of loadshedding.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) has also declined this year with the fleet average sitting at 59.4 percent. This is a massive drop off from the 61.7 percent EAF in 2021.
So what is Eskom doing? Well it added 419MW of wind energy in 2022 but according to the CSIR, not much else has been done. The amount of energy generated by coal, nuclear, diesel, hydro, solar and concentrated solar power have not changed.
As for Eskom’s power mix, 81.3 percent or 91.1TWh comes from coal power, while just 13.4 percent or 15TWh comes from renewable energy.
It is incredibly tough to look at this data and not be worried. Meanwhile, Eskom has remained tight-lipped on the pervasive nature of loadshedding over the last few months. The utility is expected to brief media this morning but as of time of writing, the silence is deafening.
Power alerts from Eskom are few and far between with announcements regarding loadshedding often coming minutes before the lights go off. Something needs to be done at Eskom because South Africans are growing more and more frustrated with the status quo.
While the utility talked up easing up demand by contracting generation capacity to independent contractors, movement on that has been slow to non-existent.
Loadshedding Stage 2 is currently in effect until 16:00 at which point Stage 3 loadshedding will come into effect. This trend will continue until further notice. Given the data that CSIR shared, we wouldn’t be surprised if loadshedding simply persisted until the 2024 election season.
Stage 3 loadshedding will be implemented at 16:00 today until 05:00 on Tuesday; Stage 2 and 3 will be implemented on Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/76twfQV273
— Eskom Hld SOC Ltd (@Eskom_SA) November 14, 2022
